I ngā rā tata nei, kua maha ngā tangata e whai ana i ngā rongo ā‑hangarau, ina koa ngā whai i te ao AI, i rongo ai i tētahi kupu: e mahi tahi ana ētahi kamupene nui ki te hanga pokapū "1GW", maha‑GW rānei, ā, e whakapau moni tekau piriona, neke atu rānei i ngā mano miriona, ā, i etahi wā, he rau piriona tāra. Nō reira, he aha te tikanga o te "1GW o te compute"? Ka whakamāramatia tēnei tuhinga ki te reo māmā.
I ngā rāngai o te mīhini ako (AI) me ngā pokapū raraunga, kāore te "1GW o te compute" e tohu tika ana i te mahinga rorohiko (pērā i te FLOPS, rānei), engari e tohu ana ki te pūrere tātai kaha hiko — te gigawatt (GW) — hei ine i te rahi o te tuku hiko e hiahiatia ana e tētahi pokapū raraunga. He pūnaha "pērā i te ine rorohiko mā te āwhina hiko" tēnei, nā te mea e tino whai pānga ana ngā taputapu hangarau‑nui pērā i ngā GPU, TPU rānei, ki te whakamahinga hiko, ā, ko tēnei whakamahinga te whakarite i ngā hiahia hiko o te pokapū.
Ngā taipitopito:
- 1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW, he tata ki te kawenga hiko ā‑tau o tētahi tāone rahi‑waenganui, ā, ka taea te tuku hiko ki te 750,000–1,000,000 whare nohonoho i Uropi/US (whakarāpopototanga).
- I te horopaki AI, ka taea e te 1GW te tautoko i ngā mano tekau o ngā GPU‑nui pērā i te NVIDIA H100. Hei tauira, ko te whakangungu i tētahi tauira reo‑nui pērā i te GPT‑5 ka hiahiatia pea he miriona haora GPU, ā, ka hiahiatia te taumahi hiko ā‑muri mo te whakahaere tonu i te taumata GW.
- Kāore tēnei e kīia he ine "maha rorohiko" noa; he whakaaturanga tēnei i ngā aukatinga hanganga: e tino herea ana te "compute" AI e te hiko me te whakamātao. He pērā i te wheketere AI ngā pokapū raraunga, ā, ko te kaha hiko ā‑GW te "taimana wahie" mō rātou. I piki te kaha hiko ā‑ao o ngā pokapū raraunga mai i te 26GW (2015) ki te 81GW (2024), ā, ko te AI tētahi o ngā kaiwhakaara matua.
He whakapāwhitinga māmā: ki te kōrero tōraro, me rite ngā CPU/GPU ki ngā "mīhini", ā, ko te GW te "tangi hiko" — me kore te hiko, kāore e taea e ngā taputapu kaha te mahi i tō rātou utu katoa.
He aha i maha ai ngā kamupene matua e hanga tahi ana i ngā kaupapa maha‑GW?
Ko te tipu ohorere o te umanga AI te mea i piki ake ai te hiahia mō te pūmautanga mai i te taumata terabyte ki te exabyte (10^18). Ko te whakangungu i tētahi tauira rangatira ka kīia e ngā mano haora GPU, ā, ko tērā he hiahia tika mō te kaha hiko ā‑GW. Nō reira, e raru ana ngā kamupene nui pērā i a Meta, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft ki te takahi takitahi, ā, ka rapu rātou i ngā hoa pērā i ngā kamupene hiko, kaihanga chip me ngā kaiwhakarato hanganga mō ngā kaupapa e tū ana i runga i te maha‑GW, ā, i ētahi wā 10GW rānei.
Ngā take matua:
- Rahi o te hiahia: Kua piki ngā tawhā tauira mai i ngā rau miriona ki ngā tiriona, ā, ka piki tonu te whakamahinga hiko. E matapae ana a Deloitte ka tae te hiahia hiko o ngā pokapū raraunga AI o te US ki te 123GW mā te 2035 (he pikinga neke atu i te 30 wā), ā, ko te āhua aorangi e piki ana i te 33% ia tau. He tata tonu te hanga i tētahi pokapū 1GW mā te kotahi kamupene; me mahi tahi ngā rāngai kia tutuki ngā kaupapa maha‑GW.
- Te tiri utu me ngā rauemi: E hia miriona, neke atu rānei i ngā tekau piriona tāra te whakapau ki te hanga pokapū ā‑GW (whenua, whakahou i te whatunga, pūnaha whakamātao). Mā te mahi tahi ka tiritiria ngā mōrea. Hei tauira, e pūrongo ana ko te kaupapa "Stargate" a OpenAI i hono pū ki a Oracle me SoftBank ki te haumi $300 piriona ki te whakawhānui i te 4.5GW me te waihanga i ngā mahi mō te 25,000. Kei te whakawhanake a NVIDIA me ABB i ngā pūnaha hiko 800VDC hei whakapai ake i te whaihua o ngā wheketere AI ā‑GW.
- Ngā aukatinga hanganga: Ko te whatunga tawhito me te ngaro hiko ētahi o ngā kaupapa uaua. Me mahi ngatahi ngā ratonga hiko o te US me ngā kamupene hangarau ki te whakahou i ngā pokapū penapena me ngā raina whakawhiti kia kaua ngā kaupapa AI e roa te tatari. Hei tauira, i mahi tahi a Amazon me Dominion Energy ki te hanga i tētahi pokapū 1GW hei whakaiti i te pēhanga hiko i Virginia.
- Te pai ake o te ōhanga mā te rahinga: Ka whakaheke i te utu ā‑waha o te compute ngā pākete ā‑GW, ā, ka whakatairanga i te āheinga o te AI. E tohu ana a McKinsey ka hiahiatia he rau‑GW tāpiri o te kaha AI mā te 2030, he tūranga $7 tiriona mō te ao ōhanga.
Kei raro ake nei he ripanga poto e whakataurite ana i ētahi kaupapa mahi tahi ā‑GW a ngā kamupene matua:
He whakataetae hanganga tēnei i roto i te "tauhokohoko" AI — ko te hunga ka whiwhi i te hiko tuatahi ka whai painga.
He tika tēnei?
He tauwhāinga tika mō te wā poto, engari e hiahiatia ana he panoni toitū mō te wā roa. He tino mea nui ngā pokapū raraunga ā‑GW mō te ohanga AI, engari ka ara ake ngā āwangawanga mō te whakamahinga hiko me ngā pānga ki te taiao. I pūrongo a NPR ko te umanga AI o te US e aro ana ki ngā "rāruraru nui o te hiko me te taiao", ā, kei te mōhiotia ka tae ngā pokapū raraunga ki te 8% o te whakamahinga hiko ā‑motu mā te 2030 (mai i te 3% i te 2022).
Ngā take e tika ana:
- Wātea ōhanga: Ka ārahi te AI i te tipu o te GDP, ā, ka āwhina ngā haumi hanganga ki te kapi i ngā neiha whatunga, ki te tautoko i ngā mahi me te auahatanga. E whakaatu ana ngā rangahau a Deloitte ka hiahiatia e ngā whare rangatira AI te mana ā‑taone kia kaua rātou e ngaro i muri.
- Whakamahinga pai ake: Kua whakaitihia e ētahi tauira pērā i te Gemini a Google te hiko ia pātai me te whakanui i te whakapōuri waro. E kī ana a McKinsey ka taea e te "hoahoa mātauranga" te tere ake i ngā kaupapa me te whakaheke i ngā utu.
- He tūmanako toitū: Mā te huri ki ngā puna whakahou (pērā i te rā me te rokiroki hiko) ka taea te utu i ngā tuku waro o te whakangungu me te whakahaere, e ai ki ngā aromatawai a Generation Investment.
Ngā take kaore i te tika:
- Pēhanga taiao: He nui te whakamahi wai mō te whakamātao (ka hiahiatia pea he rau miriona o ngā hēkona o ngā kāreti wai), ā, kua kī ētahi kaipūtaiao he "kino, kāore i te toitū" ērā mahi. E whakatūpato ana a CNET kua whakataetae ngā pokapū raraunga AI mō te whenua, te wai me te hiko, ā, ka whakapiki i ngā pānga rerekē o te āhuarangi.
- Ngā tūraru whatunga: Ka pātai mēnā ka eke te hanganga US ki te taumata e hiahiatia ana; e tohu ana a Yahoo Finance i te pikinga o ngā utu hiko mō te kiritaki me te pikinga o te whakawhirinaki ki te ngako kōhatu (natural gas).
- Ngā whakaaro matatika: Me taurite ngā painga o te AI (pērā i te hauora me te pūtea) ki ngā utu; e whakaponohia ana e ētahi kairangahau i HiveMQ me hiahia kia "AI‑tōpū, toitū hoki" ngā pokapū raraunga.
Ka mutu, he mea whai tikanga te mahi tahi ā‑GW i te tau 2025, engari mēnā kāore he ture me ngā haumi kākāriki (pērā i te kaupapa "energy‑AI coordination" a McKinsey), ka kore e toitū. I roto i te heke mai, ko te pūngao kautu pōkākā me ngā pūnaha āhuarangi paku (SMR) pea ka waiho hei huarahi whakatika.