Ko te “1GW o te rorohiko” he tino taunaki e huringa ana i te wā, ehara i te rahinga pūkaha mau. He rite kē ki te “tūmoana rorohiko i raro i tētahi tahua hiko”: i te pikinga o te whaihua pūtukatuka, te auahatanga hanganga, te whakapai raupaparorohiko me te whakamahinga hiko, ka whakapiki ngatahi ngā FLOPS ka taea e taua 1GW.
Ka āta wehehia e mātou tēnei ki ngā taha e toru: nga āhuatanga hītori, ngā here ā‑tinana me ngā matapae mō 2027.
1. He aha ai e huringa ana te “1GW o te rorohiko”?
Ngā āhuatanga e ū ana ki te arahina me te whakamārama: Te pikinga whaihua o ngā pūtukatuka ↑ FLOPS ia wati; Ngā whakatikatika hanganga ↑ āheinga pērā i te sparse compute, mixed precision me ngā accelerators motuhake mō te AI; Whaihua raupaparorohiko ↑ ka whakaiti i te para wā noho mā te kōmiputa me ngā kaiwhakarite; Whakamātao ↑ ka whakarei i te mana whaihua — ko ngā kōmihana whakamātao wai, immersion rānei e whakaiti i ngā ngaronga wera; Te whakapai PUE (he iti ake te pai): mēnā ka heke te PUE ā‑pokapū raraunga nō 1.5 ki te 1.1, ka nui ake te mana e wātea ana mō te rorohiko.
Whakakapi matua: kāore te 1GW o te hiko e rite tonu ki tētahi pūkaha mau; he “pouaka wahie whaicapacitī hurihuri” ia.
2. Raraunga hītori: E hia te rorohiko ka taea e te 1GW?
Ngā pūtake raraunga: keynote NVIDIA GTC, MLPerf, SemiAnalysis, pūrongo DCD
Whakakapi: Mai i te 2020 ki te 2027, e matapae ana ka piki te rorohiko mō ia 1GW e tīnei noa ana i te 8–13×!
3. 2027 vs 2025: He “tekau ngā wā” te pikinga? Kāore i tino pērā, engari tata ki te 10×
Tuhipoka: Ehara tēnei i te “rahi tekau‑waahanga”, engari ko te koki e rua‑tau te haere (he momo ture Moore ā‑AI) he whakaaro ā‑ahumahi.
He aha i kore ai e “tekau ngā wā”?
- Ngā here ā‑tinana: te ture tuarua o te thermodynamics me te Landauer limit e here ana i te pūtea iti mō ia mahi.
- Ngā tukanga hanga: ko te nekeneke i te 3nm → 2nm → 1.4nm e whakaatu ana i ngā hua e iti haere ana.
- Ngā aukatinga tauwhānui: te rōrahi mōrearea (memory bandwidth), ngā hononga‑ā‑papa (pērā i NVLink) me te whaihua whakawhitinga raupaparorohiko.
Heoi, ka kitea pea ngā pikinga “tekau ngā wā” i ētahi wāhi motuhake, hei tauira:
- Rorohiko fotonika (matapae hokohoko 2030+)
- Whakangungu āwhina‑kaweroa (quantum‑assisted training, taumata whakamātautau)
- ASIC motuhake (hei tauira, Cerebras WSE‑3 vs GPUs)
4. Whakamāhirahara: Te 1GW hei mana hoko rorohiko i raro i te tahua hiko
Ngā kupu matua: ka noho tonu te ipu (1GW), engari ka piki te whaihua mīhini → ka tino piki te “mileage”!
5. He whakaaetanga ā‑ahumahi: ngā ara tipu rorohiko ā mua
Te matapae a SemiAnalysis: mā te 2030, ka taea e te 1GW te tautoko i te 1 ZFLOPS (10^6 EFlops), arā 10–15× ngā taumata o 2025.
6. Whakakapi: Kei te pātai koe i te pūtake (Q: He huringa te 1GW?)
Tāpiritanga: Me pēhea te tatau i te “he aha e taea e te 1GW te whakangungu”
python
# He tauira ngāwari (paparahi 2025) compute (EFlops) = power (GW) × number_of_chips × per_card_performance × utilization × time_hours # Tauwhāinga: whakangungu tauira ā-GPT-5 (~10 trillion parameters) # compute e hia ≈ 10 ZFLOPS·hours # 2025 1GW cluster: 90 EFlops → e hia ana 111 haora (~5 rā) # 2027 1GW cluster: 240 EFlops → e hia ana 42 haora (<2 rā)
Whakamutunga：
Ehara te 1GW i te nama tūmau, engari he “potenga rorohiko i raro i tētahi tahua hiko.” Me ngā āheinga GPU o nāianei, e hāngai ana te 1GW ki te tata ki te 90 EFlops, ā, ka roa te whakangungu i tētahi tauira ā‑GPT‑5 tata ki te 111 haora.
Mā te 2027, ka taea e te 1GW te whakatutuki tata i te 2.5–3× o tāna i 2025, ā, i te pae tawhiti ka tae pea ki te ~10×.
Koia te take e whakatere ai ngā kamupene AI ki te hanga pokapū raraunga i te taumata GW: whakaritea te hiko i tenei rā, riro ai te rorohiko ā apopo.
Tāpiritanga:
Ko te taumata EB e tohu ana ki te tūmomo raraunga mō te taumata exabyte (EB).
1 EB = 10^18 bytes
Ngā whakawhitinga mārama:
Ngā whakatairite o ia rā (1 EB ≈):
- 1 piriona kiriata HD (1.5 GB ia)
- ≈ 5,000× ngā raraunga kuputuhi katoa o ngā kupu ā‑waha o te tangata
- Ngā rau tau o ngā tuku ataata o YouTube ia rā
- ≈ 1/1,000 o te tatauranga raraunga ā‑tau hou i ngā pokapū raraunga mō 2025
Te hiranga i roto i te AI:
- A i te whakangungu tauira ā‑GPT‑5, ka tae ngā kohinga raraunga whakangungu ki ngā taumata maha‑EB (hei tauira, Common Crawl kua whakatikahia me ngā raraunga hangaia).
- 1 EB ≈ 10^18 bytes (tērā āhua: 1 kupu Ingarihi ≈ 4 bytes ≈ ~1 token).
- Kei te whakamahia kē e ngā tikanga hōu te 10–50 EB o raraunga whaihua mō te whakangungu (tae atu ki ngā tāruarua whai taumata).
Whakakapi: 1 EB = 10^18 bytes
Arā: 1 EB = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 B = 10^18 B